Nov 7/09 | The Castros' revenge on Thomas Shannon: When Enemies Collude

PMBComment | It would seem that Fidel Castro has found the right allies - some of those who purportedly oppose him in the US - to exact revenge for the slight of hand that deprived him of his 47 year old "I am a victim" sob story. After San Pedro Sula - site of the latest General Assembly of the OAS - I have not heard any Latin leader talk about, much less demand, the reentry of Cuba into the interamerican fold. That fact alone should be sufficient proof that Assistant Secretary Shannon is a consummate negotiator and one that informed Cuban Americans in the US should hail not pillory. At that meeting, all the countries in the OAS approved a resolution conditioning the return of the expelled island nation to its ability to live by the core tenets of the organization. Countries like Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Zelaya's Honduras had to sign on the dotted line as they could not explain to others why such conditions were excessive. But, when it comes to the Cuba policy debate inside the US, anything is possible, and one has to conclude that the Castros' have been blessed by having the least Pavlovian enemies in the world. For the most vocal anti-castroites, failure has only been an evident signal to stay the course; obstinacy has been sold as virtue, and success seems more related to funding status quo maintenance efforts than affecting real constructive change in Cuba.

On this point, a set of "talking points" against Shannon's confirmation making the rounds in the US Senate reads like something right out of the backrooms of the Palacio de la Revolución in Havana or the "fertile" minds that manhandle affairs from Miraflores Palace in Caracas. One would expect that US Senators (their staff's actually) would have the means to spot Fool's Gold; but it seems the barriers to entry into membership or employment in that select club of 100 have fallen significantly in the last few years.

Those who under the grandiloquent flag (who entrusted this job to them in the first place?) of displaced Cubans, Hondurans, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans are trying to line up sequential "holds" on the confirmation of Thomas Shannon as US Ambassador to Brazil are either misinformed or in cahoots with those that have been foiled by Shannon's non histrionic approach to rouge Latin regimes intent on justifying their multiple failings on the "evil Empire". A few months after Roger Noriega, a darling of the Cuba PAC, was fired and replaced by Shannon, Venezuelan Foreign Minister was quoted, in a previous OAS General Assembly, saying "We miss Roger Noriega". They still do. PMB

Note: The blog post below by Investor's Business Daily's Monica Showater provides additional color on this wasteful effort to punish success.

Capital Hill

IBD"s Politics And Markets Blog

The Senate's New Piñata By Monica Showalter

Fri., Nov. 06, '09 11:40 PM ET

Lobbyist and Senate sources tell IBD that the new hold placed on Tom Shannon’s appointment as ambassador to Brazil is just one of many in the pipeline for the luckless career diplomat who up until now has been the top U.S. policymaker for Latin America. On Thursday, the Senate did confirm Georgetown academic Arturo Valenzuela as assistant secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, a job Shannon has held until now. Both Shannon and Valenzuela had been in limbo for a couple of months based on Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., hold on their appointments. But DeMint lifted the holds this week after he was satisfied that a Shannon-brokered deal meant that the U.S. would not insist on the restoration of ousted Honduran President Mel Zelaya, who illegally tired to extend his term. DeMint also said he was confident the U.S. would recognize the results of the Nov. 29 election, which would truly end this Honduran crisis. But Thursday night Sen. George LeMieux, R-Fla., immediately placed a new hold on Shannon. LeMieux’s act doesn’t have any apparent connection to the Honduran crisis. Instead, the man who succeeded Cuban-American Mel Martinez is said to be close to parts of the Cuban-American community that view Shannon as soft on communism. If that new hold isn’t enough, other senators are in line to block Shannon as well, sources say. They include Bob Menendez, D-N.J. and David Vitter, R-La., according to a Senate GOP source speaking off the record. Both have close ties to the Cuban-American community. Mauricio Claver-Carone of the U.S.-Cuba Democracy PAC stressed to IBD that his group doesn’t endorse candidates, but his personal opinion is that Shannon “shouldn’t be ambassador to anywhere.” A key sore spot is Shannon’s role earlier this year in dealing with Cuba’s demand that Organization of American States let it rejoin. Shannon authored a statement that would let Cuba back into the OAS — if it took various democratic steps. Widely reported as a cave-in to the pro-Castro lobby, Havana didn’t see it that way. Castro wanted unconditional entry to the OAS to qualify for trade credits from the Inter-American Development Bank. Failing that, he wanted America to take a hard line for as political fodder at home and in the region. But Shannon’s soft-pedal approach gave Castro nothing and took Cuba’s OAS reentry off the table. But for that success, and for his leading role in the Honduras accord, Shannon gets the political piñata treatment from the Senate.

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Jul 16/09 | From Petrostate to Narcostate: Venezuela High on Drugs according to GAO Report (WSJ, FT, El País)

PMBComment: The WSJ, the FT and El País of Spain (see articles below in English and Spanish) have obtained copies of a soon to be published report by the GAO on Drug Trafficking in Venezuela. According to Antonio Caño from El País, the report, which should become public in the next few days, essentially concludes that Venezuela has morphed into a narcostate. All three newspapers carry very strong quotes from Senator Dick Lugar (R-Ind) who commissioned the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) to look into Venezuela's growing role as a key player in the international drug trade.

"The findings of this report have heightened my concern that Venezuela's failure to cooperate with the United States on drug interdiction is related to corruption in that country's government," says Sen. Lugar.

Quoting from the WSJ story: "Corruption within the Venezuelan National Guard "poses the most significant threat," the report says, because the "Guard reports directly to President Chávez and controls Venezuela's airports, borders and ports.

All of what is being reported comes as no surprise to many Venezuelans. For a decade the penetration of the drug business into regular day-to-day life has been fomented by senior government officials who are confident their misdeeds will go unreported and unpunished.

The report will present the Obama administration yet another test as to the fundamental nature of rogue states. Seeking to maintain good relationship with a country that does not want to discuss any of the sore subjects soiling its bilateral relationship with Washington (among others) is foolhardy. The real challenge is how to prosecute criminal behavior without empowering a regime that thrives on vitriolic US-is-at-fault victimization. It is about time that those who appease Mr. Chávez (Mr. Lula first and foremost) realize they are not only accessories to the wanton destruction of Venezuelan democracy, but also complicit in the transformation of the country into a crumbling, yet worrisome, narcostate. PMB

Note: The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) is known as "the investigative arm of Congress" and "the congressional watchdog." GAO supports the Congress in meeting its constitutional responsibilities and helps improve the performance and accountability of the federal government for the benefit of the American people, Source GAO web site

1)

El País | Madrid (Unofficial translation)

Narco trafficking penetrates Venezuela

A US Congress report describes the birth of a ‘narcostate’ in that Caribbean nation – Since 2004 cocaine exportation has quadrupled

ANTONIO CAÑO - Washington – 16 July 2009

A United States Congress report warns of strong narcotraffic penetration into Venezuela, with a very significant increase in drug exportation volume and of complicity in that business by high civilian and military officials of the régime, who collaborate with and protect the Colombian guerrillas and criminal organizations. In substance, this report, which will be disclosed at the end of this month, describes the birth of a narcostate in Venezuela.

According to this investigation, that country has become the main distribution center for cocaine produced in Colombia and the main port of embarkation for this product aimed especially at markets in the United States and Spain. “A high level of corruption inside the Venezuelan Government, Army and other law enforcement forces have contributed to the creation of this climate of permissiveness,” thus assures the report, whose content EL PAÍS has been able to access.

“The findings of this report have heightened my concern that Venezuela’s refusal to cooperate with the United States on drug interdiction is due to existing corruption in that country’s Government,” thus affirms Senator Richard Lugar, the highest ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who entrusted the preparation of this document to the General Accountability Office (GAO) that reports to Congress, in an effort to confirm information from the State Department concerning the increase in narcotraffic in Venezuela.

Lugar considers that, following this investigation, “this at least requires a comprehensive review of United States policy toward Venezuela,” and suggests similar measures for “other countries affected” by this situation.

From 2004 until 2007, the amount of cocaine produced in Colombia and shipped from Venezuela has more than quadrupled, going from 60 tons per year to 260 tons per year. According to the report, these figures represent 17% of all the cocaine produced in the world in 2007. “After entering Venezuela,” the document relates, “the cocaine usually leaves the country aboard aircraft that take off and land at hundreds of clandestine airports.”

United States security agencies detected 178 flights, originating from Venezuelan airports in 2007, suspected of transporting drugs, compared to the 109 that had been spotted in 2004. During this same period, cocaine flights from Colombia had been practically eliminated, thanks to drug enforcement programs developed jointly by that country and the United States.

In other words, since the year 2004, Venezuela has in fact displaced the cocaine traffic formerly generated in neighboring Colombia. This has been accomplished, according to the report, thanks to the close collaboration between the Venezuelan Armed Forces and the Colombian guerillas, heavily involved in the business.

“According to members of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC) interrogated by the Colombian government, Venezuelan government officials, including members of the National Guard, have received bribes meant to facilitate the passage of cocaine from the Colombian border area,” thus assures the document from the United States Congress.

“The corruption within the National Guard,” adds the report, “represents the most significant threat, given that the Guard reports directly to President Hugo Chávez and controls Venezuela’s borders, airports and seaports.”

The report, prepared between August of 2008 and the current month of July, includes actions the Venezuelan government has taken in recent years to destroy clandestine airports and drug caches, but warns that it is difficult to weigh the validity of this information given that United States participation in drug enforcement in Venezuela, which was intense up until 2004, has practically disappeared now.

Some officials of the United States Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) still continue to work in Venezuela, but the document from Congress assures that their work is marginal: “They say they continue to meet informally with the Venezuelans in charge, but these meeting are generally meant more to maintain communications than to discuss substantial matters of cooperation.”

According to the report, the United States has made some efforts to resume that collaboration, especially stemming from the meeting, in April, at the Trinidad and Tobago summit, between Chávez and United States President Barack Obama. One of those steps has been to invite Venezuela’s Prosecutor General to visit Washington to discuss diverse antidrug initiatives, but the Venezuelan Minister of Foreign Relations has not yet granted permission for that trip.

United States aid in the fight against drugs in Venezuela, which was almost 11 million dollars in 2003, has been reduced to less than two million in 2008. “Despite all the efforts, cooperation continues to decline,” thus concludes the document.

The report from the United States Congress mentions Spain as the principal destination outside of the Americas for flights originating in Venezuela. On that continent, the main routes toward the United States are through Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and other countries in Central America and the Caribbean.

In Mexico, the drug coming from Venezuela ends up in the hands of gangs who have control of this activity in that country. Elsewhere, the shipments frequently do not reach land, but are tossed into the sea, where they are picked up by ships that carry on with the shipping.

Link to original article in Spanish: http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/narcotrafico/penetra/Venezuela/elpepiint/20090716elpepiint_1/Tes?print=1

2)

The Wall Street Journal

AMERICAS NEWS · JULY 16, 2009

U.S. Slams Caracas on Drugs

By JOSE DE CORDOBA

Venezuela is fast becoming a major hub for cocaine trafficking in the Western Hemisphere, according to a report written by the investigative arm of the U.S. Congress. The report from the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office is sure to raise tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. at a delicate moment in the two countries' often testy relations.

The report, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, blames widespread government corruption for increases in cocaine transshipments through Venezuela. Such shipments have soared more than fourfold to 260 metric tons in 2007 from 60 metric tons in 2004 as the government of President Hugo Chávez has systematically slashed its antinarcotics cooperation efforts with the U.S., according to the report.

"A high level of corruption within the Venezuelan government, military and other law enforcement and security forces contributes to the permissive environment," says the report, scheduled to be released this month. Many of the drug shipments come from Colombian "illegal armed groups" such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, the report says, which the Venezuelan government provides with "a lifeline" of support and a haven within Venezuela. FARC is a communist guerrilla group.

The biggest problem: corruption of Venezuelan officials at all levels, according to the report.Corruption within the Venezuelan National Guard "poses the most significant threat," the report says, because the "Guard reports directly to President Chávez and controls Venezuela's airports, borders and ports." In some cases, the report says, drugs captured by the National Guard and Venezuela's Investigative Police, who are often themselves involved in drug trafficking, aren't destroyed, but are taken by the officials or returned to drug traffickers.

"The findings of this report have heightened my concern that Venezuela's failure to cooperate with the United States on drug interdiction is related to corruption in that country's government," said Sen. Richard Lugar, the ranking Republican member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, who commissioned the report.

"The report's findings require, at a minimum, a comprehensive review of U.S. policy towards Venezuela," he added.

Venezuela's ambassador to Washington, Bernardo Álvarez, said in a statement that he wouldn't comment on the report because he hadn't yet received it. But Mr. Álvarez said Venezuela is engaged in a "complex fight against drug trafficking" which has been recognized by the Organization of American States, Interpol and many other countries.

The GAO report comes at a particularly delicate time in U.S.-Venezuelan relations. Last month, the two countries agreed to re-establish ambassadors for the first time since September, when Venezuela expelled the U.S. ambassador and the U.S. followed suit. Mr. Álvarez said the report wouldn't help this rapprochement.

The report also comes as Mr. Chávez and the Obama administration have formed an unlikely alliance to restore Honduras's ousted President Manuel Zelaya, one of Mr. Chávez's closest regional allies, who was deposed last month. Honduran soldiers, acting on a Supreme Court warrant, detained Mr. Zelaya in a pre-dawn raid for pushing a referendum to rewrite the constitution allowing him to remain in power -- a move the court had declared illegal -- and put him on a plane out of the country.

But Mr. Chávez, who is funding Mr. Zelaya's efforts to make a comeback, has excoriated a U.S.-backed mediation effort to restore Mr. Zelaya, and angrily threatened to depose the interim government.

In the past few years, drug trafficking through Honduras has risen sharply, with many shipments of cocaine arriving in flights from Venezuela on their way to Mexico and the U.S., say officials in Tegucigalpa, the Honduran capital.

Write to Jose de Cordoba at jose.decordoba@wsj.com

Link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124770711501549043.html

3)

Financial Times | AMERICAS

Politics & Policy

Venezuela accused of corruption in drugs fight

By Benedict Mander in Caracas

Published: July 15 2009 19:53 | Last updated: July 15 2009 19:53

A spiralling drug trafficking problem in Venezuela has been made worse by official corruption and a refusal to co-operate with the US, according to a forthcoming US Congress report.

A copy of the report, obtained by the Financial Times, showed that efforts to combat a fourfold increase in cocaine smuggling through Venezuela between 2004 and 2007 have been damaged by corruption in the national guard, which, it says, co-operates with Colombian drug traffickers.

Senator Richard Lugar, the ranking member of the US Senate committee on foreign relations, who requested the report in February 2008, said: “The findings of this report have heightened my concern that Venezuela’s failure to co-operate with the United States on drug interdiction is related to corruption in that country’s government.”

Despite more than $6bn (€4.3bn, £3.7bn) invested by the US government to attack Colombia’s cocaine trade, the report argues that this has been undermined by Venezuela’s failure to prevent leftwing guerrilla groups such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc) from using its territory as a haven.

The Farc, which US officials fear enjoys the support of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez, are believed to send about 60 per cent of the cocaine that reaches the US from Colombia.

Mr Lugar said Venezuela’s “unco-operative attitude” called for “a comprehensive review” of US policy towards the country, at a time when the two nations are attempting to improve relations that have suffered ever since the US supported a coup that briefly deposed Mr Chávez in 2002.

Last September, Venezuela’s fiery leader expelled the US ambassador – prompting the US to reciprocate – but both ambassadors were reinstated last month in an attempt to rebuild relations.

Nevertheless, Mr Chávez continues to refuse to allow the US Drug Enforcement Administration to operate in Venezuela, after ending co-operation with them in 2005 because of suspicions of espionage.

Although Venezuelan officials could not immediately be reached for comment, they have rejected similar criticisms from the US in the past, arguing that Venezuela is the victim of an accident of geography, stuck between the world’s largest cocaine producer, Colombia, and the drug’s largest consumer, the US.

Mr Chávez has brushed off such attacks as politically motivated, countering that Venezuela has implemented a comprehensive anti-drug strategy that includes prevention, drug seizures, arrests and extraditions of criminals. It has also signed 37 co-operation agreements with countries that include France, Spain and Portugal.

Although the Venezuelan government says that average cocaine seizures have increased by as much as 60 per cent since co-operation with the DEA ended, the US has cast doubt on the reliability of these figures.

Although the US remains the primary destination for the cocaine that passes through Venezuela, the Government Accountability Office report contends that an increasing proportion is smuggled to Europe.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

"FT" and "Financial Times" are trademarks of the Financial Times. Privacy policy | Terms
© Copyright The Financial Times Ltd 2009

Link: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc5949a6-716f-11de-a821-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1

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Jun 24 | On US-Venezuelan Relations: Back to the Past? Not for long!

Anti social networking

PMBComment: The US and Venezuela announced today that, in terms of diplomatic representatives, they would return to the situation that existed prior to the unwarranted expulsion of US Ambassador Patrick Duddy (Sep. 11, 2008).

On Friday afternoon Ambassador Bernardo Alvarez resumes - with no fanfare one hopes - his post as Venezuela's envoy to Washington, and AmbassadorDuddy is expected in Caracas shortly thereafter. This solution - rather unusual in the case of diplomatic expulsions - is a crafty and expedite way to reestablish high level diplomatic contact between the two irreconcilable countries. It would have been time consuming (and risky) to put a new US envoy through a Senate confirmation process likely to ventilate the wide schism that exists currently between both countries. None of the issues that are of deep concern for the US: drugs, FARC/ELN, relations with Iran and other non-Latin terrorist entities, money laundering, human rights, democracy (for now sadly in this order), are ever going to be discussed with Mr. Chávez who does not delegate foreign affairs to measly Ambassadors and who as a consummate meddler is very sensitive to anyone breathing down his militaristic neck.

Good intentions aside, the bumpy (and soon to be bumpier) path that US policy has taken in the case of North Korea and Iran is likely to be repeated verbatim with Venezuela. Mr. Obama charted a course with all three countries that one can compare to the last breath a free diver takes before plunging into the ocean. It provides just enough oxygen to survive under water for a very short span of time and soon enough the diver has to reach the surface and go back to a normal terrestrial existence. Holding your breath is no alternative for governing from 1600 Pennsylvania as the recent wake up call from not-so-accommodating Iran painfully demonstrates. Thugs of all stripes see charm offensives and mea culpas as fabulous windows of opportunity to strike while the enemy is "deep underwater". Mr. Chávez has been particularly capricious and abusive since that big smiley handshake in Port of Spain. He could well assume that normalization means just a bit more wiggle space and precious time to suffocate - unabated - a nation that he has failed miserable at governing.

Finally, I would recommend Mr. Duddy travel light to Caracas. People with Mr. Chávez's pathological profile tend to see a cheek turned as another great opportunity to strike. It will not be too long before Mr. Obama has to come back for air on Venezuela and Mr. Duddy will then be back - for good - in the US of A. PMB

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Dec 19/08 | What Goes Up Must Come Down: Oil Betrays Those it Empowered

Crude Oil Prices: Not quite a perfect Christmas tree

PMBComment: Oil has gone back to it's old boring pattern. Oil now trades, as it used to do, based on fundamental supply-demand drivers. Yesterday OPEC cut 2.2 million barrels of production and the market reached a 4-year low. Since there is no visible floor for demand in the mist of a global meltdown, there is little that can be done to arrest a price dive to the $30-$35 level, or below. The run from $50 to $147, which actually defied production increases, was supercharged by Hedge Funds with ample cash and easy access to credit. The ease of leverage in the oil futures markets acted as propellant to a wicked boom that made Petrostates feel all too powerful and act all too cocky. They essentially believed that oil at $200 was their right and something they were destined for even at the expense of the economies of their consuming clients. The stupidity and shortsightedness of this type of thinking matches nicely with the regulatory lapses of the capitalist world some of them claim to despise. While trumpeting the demise of the West, Iran, Venezuela, and, to some extent, Russia, are fast digging their own deep and frigid graves. No countries will be more hurt by their failure to understand the contradiction of their circumstances than these three increasingly inscrutable oil-dependent autocracies. 

It is safe to say that financial speculators (those who are still among us) are now out of the oil market and it will be physical barrel players - real oil companies, traditional commodity traders and refiners - who will call the shots with little room, or leverage, to over speculate. Trying to ascertain a floor for oil prices will be impossible in the coming months and the best OPEC can hope for is to buttress current "low" prices through some degree of - hard to achieve - collective discipline. In the medium term, and barring any terror bred disruption, prices above $50 are nonsensical. Solving massive fiscal shortfalls by wishing a return to lofty prices is not only wishful thinking but also irresponsible.

Now the key question is: What will nefarious and on-the-brink oil states like Venezuela and Iran do to reverse their awful predicament? There is no easy answer to this obvious quandary as dictators and charlatans are prone to error when hurting or cornered. But rest assured that far-fetched schemes must be cluttering their desks. 

In the case of Venezuela, it is going to be interesting to see how a "revolution" fueled and sustained solely by increasing oil revenue deals with this new disastrous reality. Hugo Chavez is once again trying to distract attention with yet another referendum that is proof of his undemocratic self ("Why should a good President ever have to leave office" he asks). Even if he were to "pull off" a triumph in his effort to change "just 11 words" in the Constitution, he will still have to manage to stay in power until the 2012 election to opt for another 6 year term. Having the right to another re-election does not in itself ensure it, unless the opposition is unable to present a soon-to-be-destitute nation with a clear picture of the culprit or a better option to him and his band of incompetent ruffians.

By not cutting his losses in time, Hugo Chavez will have no one to blame for the impending implosion of both a political "model" and hoodwinked nation. After 10 year in power he cannot unload on the past anymore - he is now effectively "the past" - and with Bush out of power, he can no longer shadow box with an unpopular US President who all but ignored him for years. So what will Hugo do in the days to come? Facing the prospect of ending like Noriega, Milosevic or Ceausescu - none a pretty ending - he is bound to make a number of very big mistakes, and then, a final fatal one. My bet is that he is at his most dangerous right now. Chavez might have been a tolerable fellow to some on the upswing, but he will be detestable for most in the fast occurring bust. 

The biggest risk for the future of Venezuela, and beyond, is that Hugo's foreign "friends", and his local accomplices, conclude that Chavez-the-revolutionary-martyr is a much better legacy than Chavez-the-exposed-incompetent-despot. If that calculation leads them to dispose of him before he is revealed as the coupster who wore no clothes - as the fraud he has always been, then we will all have to put up with Saint Hugo, the XXI century martyr of "the excluded". It is incumbent upon all that Lt. Colonel Chavez, and his self-proclaimed revolution, undergo the severe dressing down they sorely deserve. This man, and his corrupt revolution, should enter history in its darkest pages, those purposefully reserved for the wicked, the corrupt and the insolent. PMB  

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Dec 13/08 | Bush and the Bloggers: To be continued?

PMBComment: Interesting and fair article by Jackson Diehl who has been a meticulous follower of abuse around the world and a consistent supporter of those who risk much to challenge the crazed and the mighty. In the case of Venezuela, Diehl has always been open to listen to all sides and with that perspective has always erred on the side of individuals and basic liberties, and has never once been swayed by the words of the Bolivarian charlatans that have ruined a country that was needing repair. In this article Diehl describes a fascinating session he attended with his colleague Fred Hiatt. The host George W. Bush. One Venezuelan blogger, my respected friend Miguel Octavio, was invited to this session with the lame duck president. His take on the same meeting can be read in his very smart blog The Devil's Excrement. 

President Bush could have done a great deal more to support freedom fighters around the world, but in comparison to the Lulas, Mbekis, Bachelets, Zapateros, Foxes, Calderones, Insulzas and Uribes of the world, he did an amazing amount and that should not only be credited but also continued. PMB

The Washington Post

The Door That Bush Kept Open 

By Jackson Diehl
Friday, December 12, 2008; A27

By now it's commonplace for pundits like me to point out that President Bush has come nowhere close to fulfilling the promise of his second inaugural address, which was that he would commit his government to the spread of freedom and the defense of democratic dissidents around the world. The State Department long ago squelched the president's initial attempts to act on those soaring words in places such as Egypt and Azerbaijan; even worse, many Democrats have reacted to Bush's fecklessness by concluding that the incoming Obama administration should preemptively swear off any attempt to pressure the autocrats of the Islamic world, or powers such as Russia and China, for democratic change.

There is, however, one important way in which the president has been faithful to his cause -- and one practice he has pioneered that ought to outlast him. Throughout the past several years, Bush has gone out of his way to meet personally with advocates for democratic change around the world -- especially those under pressure from their governments. He has invited them to the White House and has looked for them in their own countries. Last year, in Prague, he even attended a conference of dissidents from all over the world. While many of those who have gotten his attention come from countries with regimes that are hostile to the United States, such as Belarus and Burma, Bush hasn't shrunk from meeting people from nominally friendly countries, for example, Egypt and China, even at the cost of infuriating their governments.

On Wednesday, in honor of the 60th Human Rights Day, Bush did it one more time, inviting dissident bloggers from China, Burma, Iran, Cuba, Belarus, Egypt and Venezuela to the White House's Roosevelt Room (the last two attended via videoconference). For an hour, the president listened as the bloggers described how they attempt to circumvent state censorship to disseminate news and organize pressure for change on the Internet. His purpose, he said, was "to honor, herald and highlight the brave souls who are on the front lines -- and that's you."

Xiao Qiang, author of the China blog Rock-n-Go (http://rockngo.org), responded by describing the courageous stand taken this week by 300 Chinese intellectuals who signed a manifesto in favor of democratic freedoms and human rights called "Charter 08" -- a document that Chinese bloggers are doing their best to circulate. He pointed out that despite official controls on the Internet, there are now more Chinese bloggers than American bloggers.

Arash Sigarchi, an Iranian who was imprisoned and then exiled for his work and now operates from Northern Virginia (http://sigarchi.net/blog/), said he had asked three dozen bloggers inside Iran what message should be delivered to the U.S. president. The nearly unanimous answer: Please prevent U.S. and Chinese companies from selling Internet-filtering software to our government. ("What are the companies' names?" Bush demanded. "We'll find out their names.")

Mahmoud Saber of Egypt reminded Bush of the seven Egyptian bloggers who have been arrested and jailed by the government of Hosni Mubarak; he said the hope of Egypt's "Facebook generation" is that the next U.S. president "not support autocratic rulers in the Middle East."

Bush's personal attention hasn't always helped the dissidents. As Saber reminded the president this week, Saad Eddin Ibrahim of Egypt has been unable to return to his home in Cairo ever since he shook Bush's hand at that Prague meeting; if he does, a regime-concocted jail sentence awaits. Ayman Nour, who was sprung from a Cairo prison in 2005 by Bush's pressure and then ran for president against Mubarak, has been back in jail for three years -- a symbol of one vindictive autocrat's victory over the "freedom agenda."

For the most part, however, the attention of the American president is precious to dissidents. It gains them enormous attention in their own countries and injects their liberal ideas into arenas from which they are usually excluded. Though some may be thrown in jail on their return from the White House, they also gain a de facto immunity from torture or assassination -- otherwise a high risk in countries such as Belarus and Burma.

Bush, a practitioner of policy-by-personal-connection both for good and for ill, would clearly like to see the next president similarly commit himself. That's probably why he invited me and my colleague Fred Hiatt to Wednesday's meeting: After directing a jibe at us for our criticism of his freedom agenda failures, he said he hoped his successor would come under no less pressure to support democratic dissidents. He's right: On this at least, Barack Obama should follow Bush's example.

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Nov 24/08 | Chiseling Away at a Fatally Flawed "Revolution": It is Possible!

New Mayor of Caracas, left, and Governor of Miranda
(with "inhabilitado" Leopoldo Lopez on the right):
To win they chiseled Chavez's popular base
Courtesy of REUTERS

PMBComment: November 23rd (23N) has brought another electoral setback for a thuggish autocrat too smart to do away with the last vestiges of democracy and too obtuse to understand the rumblings and messages from the electorate. After making a regional election all about himself and the renewal of his "XXI century socialism" mandate, Hugo Chávez cannot elude the glaring consequences of these latest contests. Winning the majority of state governorships -17 of 22 contested (with likely challenges in the works) - but losing the key ones - Zulia, Miranda, Carabobo, plus Tachira, Nueva Esparta and the greater Caracas and Sucre municipal districts - cannot be spun as a victory by a man who campaigned as if his life depended on it.

It was in Zulia State that he promised to jail the outgoing governor whose hand picked pupil won, and in Carabobo he threatened "to pull out the tanks" if the opposition won and they did. In Miranda, he campaigned arduously for his perennial sidekick and former VP Diosdado Cabello only to see him lose to Cuban-foe Henrique Capriles, and in Caracas, his close ally Aristobulo Isturiz was defeated by a symbolic representative of the old guard, a former AD militant that only joined the race after Chávez forced his Supreme Court to disqualify the sure landslide bound and Harvard educated Leopoldo Lopez.

The main issue now is how is Venezuela going to function going forward. Hugo Chávez is a mid-level-mediocre-military-man whose sees the world in stark black and white: for him there are only glorious victories or ignominious defeats. He is lousy at sharing power and incompetent as an administrator. Dialogue with opponents is not his forte and I doubt it will come easily to him. Furthermore, a meltdown of public finances has already occurred in Venezuela but was covered-up in the run up to elections. Hiding the truth will only make the remedy and its purveyor all that much more intolerable in the uncertain days to come. We should expect the next few weeks to be tension filled as reality dawns on this uncouth coupster that his power base has be resoundly chiseled by an electorate exhausted of years of confrontation and certain that ruin is around the corner (if not already here).

Those around the world that continue to proclaim that Chávez is popular because of this - or that - should dig into the results of these elections. People can only be fooled part of the time, and only a few can be fooled all of the time. Those leaders in Latin America who have been cowered into complicity and silence should take a page from the defiant and valiant actions of millions of poor Venezuelans who have voted against the will of a ruthless blackmailer. Treating Hugo Chávez as anything but a seriously dangerous and increasingly unpopular leader would be a mistake. If he chooses to ignore the constitutional consequences of this trouncing I have no doubt that he will squander what little remains of his mandate and a power vacuum will materialize.

For the opposition, and more so for those who wrestled control from the chavismo, the main challenge will be to grab control of unaudited public apparatuses that need to be institutionalized in the midst of what will certainly be a period of fiscal scarcity and dangerous maneuvering by a chastened "revolution".

Venezuela must be congratulated for this against all odds show of faith in democracy. PMB

NOTE: These elections where not observed by that fatuous monstrosity called the Organization of American States and we did not miss them. For all the talk about their prowess in electoral missions it is clear that in kowtowing to Hugo Chavez the member states have negated its reason for existing and made a mockery of its Charter and the much celebrated Democratic Charter.

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