Feb 27/12 | Venezuela: ¿Cambio Brusco de Circunstancias?

Mucho juguete poco mando

PMBComentario | En las ultimas semanas eventos planificados y otros fortuitos, secuenciados de forma casi mágica, han dado al traste con muchos de los escenarios comunes - incluidos los de este comentarista - sobre el futuro inmediato de Venezuela.

Errores de cálculo de distinta índole y comportamientos - colectivos e individuales - dignos de estudio, permiten divisar caminos de salida nuevos que si se transitan con buen juicio - y un poco de suerte adicional - nos permitirán sortear algunas de las peores e inmediatas consecuencias de esta destructiva ‘revolución’ Bolivariana.

No es que pasamos milagrosamente del pesimismo al optimismo, sino que pasamos de lo más malo a algo menos malo, del mal incalculable al mal cuantificable. Nada se dará sin esfuerzo y no hay ninguna garantía de éxito, pero al menos parecería que por un instante hay una alineación de circunstancias que permiten pensar que esa luz al final del túnel no es una mera ilusión.

Los errores (recientes) de HChF

Podemos comenzar este análisis de nuevas circunstancias evaluando la secuencia de errores recientes del Teniente Coronel Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías, quien, nos guste o no, sigue marcando la hora del diario quehacer de 28 millones de venezolanos. Estos errores de cálculo han reducido el margen de maniobra del régimen al mínimo y como resultado incrementado los opciones para toda una sociedad exhausta y arruinada por tanta confrontación, tan palpable incompetencia y tan peligrosa criminalización del poder.  

Cuatro de los errores fundamentales fueron: 

• Quiso hacer creer que ya no estaba enfermo y por tanto no necesitaba sucesores. Ordenó a sus tres ministros claves (incluyendo el Vicepresidente Elías Jaua, y al canciller Nicolás Maduro quien ya se sentía ungido) a optar por gobernaciones - a modo de medir sus respectivos liderazgos y aspiraciones con votos. Nuevamente - exhibiendo la parte irresponsable de su narcisismo galopante, quiso que se supiera que el chavismo sin Chávez es inviable, que el único legítimo es él. Con él todo, sin él caos. Pero lo peor es que Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías se creyó su propio cuento de sanación y llegó al extremo de decir - hace unos dias - barrabasadas como esta: “Antes tenía planteado quedarme a gobernar hasta el 2021 pero más bien lo estoy considerando hasta el 2031”. Se sintió inmortal ...

• Confiándose en encuestas complacientes - de encuestadores tarifados - concluyó que la oposición fracasaría en la primarias por una de dos vías (o las dos juntas): muy baja participación (estimaban menos de 1.3 millones; votaron 3.0 millones) y un voto dividido entre los tres primeros (con ninguno superando el todo importante baremo de 50%; Capriles se alzó con un muy cómodo 60%). Para garantizar que se diera esto, se dedicaron él, y los suyos, a ridiculizar el proceso de selección gerenciado con inusitada destreza por la Comisión Electoral de la Mesa de la Unidad. Chávez daba por sentado y pregonaba a diario que se abortaría las primarias o sería esta un evento bufo demostrativo de la debilidad de quienes lo adversan. Le fallaron los números ...

• Envalentonado, montó fastuosa celebración del vigésimo aniversario del fallido (pero mortal) golpe militar que lideró junto con otros jóvenes oficiales el 4 de febrero del 1992. Con sus aliados del ALBA presente, su principal intención era comunicarle a todos los militares este simple pero contundente mensaje: ustedes no tienen otra opción que yo; al final del día somos los nuevos Libertadores de la patria y yo Todopoderoso los declaro a todos ‘chavistas’. Buscaba consolidar la falaz narrativa bajo la cual los golpes del 92 no fueron fracasos sino los primeros pasos de una exitosa revolución que logró derrotar los designios del ‘imperio yanqui’ en Venezuela.  También buscaba disuadir a sus opositores civiles - olvídense de ganar elecciones pues los militares no apoyarán el retorno de ustedes al poder. Para rematar, le mostró a ‘sus’ oficiales y soldados, a sus aliados, al país y al mundo todo el equipo militar que compró a Rusia, Bielorrusia y a otros en vez de invertir en viviendas, en salud y en educación. Fue una bacanal ‘roja, rojita’, armada hasta los dientes y tremendamente ofensiva para muchos dentro - y mas fuera - de la Fuerza Armada Bolivariana. Se le pasó la mano ...

• Conocido los resultados de las primarias - el mejor posible para la oposición, más allá de los cálculos mas optimistas, ergo, el peor posible para el régimen, fuera de cualquier estimación oficial - la reacción oficial fue instantánea, insolente, abusiva y se podría decir, demencial. Los insultos del presidente hacia Henrique Capriles llegaron a bajezas inusitadas (irónicamente llamándolo 'cochino' mientras los suyos lo acusaban de ser ficha del sionismo que quiere controlarlo todo). Era inocultable su ira, su frustración y su miedo. Capriles hizo lo mas efectivo en esos casos: lo ignoró por completo. Además, el regimen intentó (y se sigue tratando)  utilizar al servil Tribunal Supremo de Justicia, y sobre todo a su Sala Electoral, para amedrentar a la oposición que con el apoyo silencioso - pero seguro - de militares ‘institucionales’ resistió firme la intimidante sentencia que ordenaba la recolección forzosa de los cuadernos electorales. Hoy enfrenta la Mesa de la Unidad (MUD) otras medidas judiciales pero ya con la certeza que son, estas medidas, sogas en el pescuezo de quienes siendo meros títeres pretenden ser jueces. Perdió la calma y la cordura ...

Cambia de manos el ‘momentum’ y se altera la ecuación militar

Ya para el día después de las sorprendentes primarias, el 'momentum' había cambiado pendularmente hacia Henrique Capriles - hacia la salida electoral y a la vista - y Chávez se veía como un demente, deambuleante y balbuceante. 

Al instante, y así es que ocurren estas cosas, la mayoría de las Fuerzas Armadas entendió que había otra alternativa que tener que aguantarse a Chávez por 6, o mas, años. De repente había solo dos grupos en las FANB: unos criminales que se han arrodillado ante el autócrata y sus titiriteros en La Habana y por ello están hoy, vergonzosamente, en posiciones claves y todo el resto que ahora dice sin sonrojo (sea verdad o mentira) que "jamás fuimos chavistas, solo cumplíamos con un mandato constitucional y el Presidente Chávez fue elegido por el pueblo...el que venga recibirá idéntico apoyo...y hoy, mas que nunca, nuestro rol es asegurar que la voluntad popular no sea manipulada o burlada.” (cita textual de una conversación con un alto oficial en posición de hablar por muchos).

De la noche a la mañana pasamos de una institución diezmada por la hyper politización, las intrigas y la corrupción a una donde los elementos criminales están perfectamente al descubierto y se ven minimizados frente a una mayoría que ya no parece dispuesta a cumplir los caprichos de narco Generales y probablemente tampoco los del muy atolondrado Comandante en Jefe. Los Generales Rangel Silva, Alcalá Cordones y Suárez Churio podrán querer defender a Hugo Chávez hasta e final pero a menos que quieran propiciar una guerra fratricida - que les costaría la vida - seguramente entenderán que su mando efectivo - ese que permite movilizar tropas y no solo presidir desfiles - esta muy disminuido y quizá ya neutralizado.

Y de repente ‘volvió’ la enfermedad

La verdad es que el cáncer no se había marchado a ningún lado. Solo había dejado de existir en el imaginario, en los deseos, de ese 15% de venezolanos que según sondeos han mitificado a Hugo Chávez por convicción o por necesidad. El resto del país nunca creyó en la curación e incluso algunos hasta dudaban de una enfermedad que sentían había sido inventada para generar lastima e inflar - como en efecto sucedió - las cifras de simpatía en las encuestas.

Tras días de rumores torpemente toreados por sus mas cercanos voceros y colaboradores, Chávez tuvo que admitir - con visible molestia - que el sagaz y atrevido periodista Nelson Bocaranda tenía la razón y estaba mejor informado que Diosdado Cabello, ese nefasto Teniente golpista que recientemente había reaparecido bicéfalo en el tope del escenario político: jefe del PSUV, el partido de gobierno, y a su vez Presidente de la Asamblea Nacional. La forma en la cual Cabello entrompó - vía Twitter - a Bocaranda dejó claro que él - en contra de lo que muchos asumían - no es parte del muy reducido primer anillo de confianza y quizá tampoco esta llamado a ser el heredero.

Si el retorno de la enfermedad fue un baño de agua helada para el chavismo en general, la forma en que se manejó la comunicación fue una afrenta para quienes colaboran directamente con el enfermo. Ministros, vice ministros, directores generales de ministerios, diputados a la AN, presidentes de Institutos Autónomos y empresas del estado, altos oficiales de la FANB y embajadores quedaron como mentirosos y peor aun, como tontos útiles al servicio de un líder paranoico que no confía en ellos y que está enfocado en salvarse él y proteger a su familia, y en poco mas. Esta perdida de fe es corrosiva y las consecuencias pudieran ser irreversibles ahora que hay alternativa a la vista.

Los que se nos vino encima

La elección presidencial pautada - pero aun no convocada oficialicialmente por el Consejo Nacional Electoral -  para el 7 de octubre, representa el horizonte mas distante que aguanta una discusión sobre el futuro de Venezuela. Ese constituye, lamentablemente y por ahora, el largo plazo. El estado de desarreglo y las múltiples incertidumbres aconsejan enfocarse en este plazo y hacerlo no solo como si fuese un período pre-electoral, sino entendiendo que será un período de muy frágil gobernabilidad donde no solo hay que ganar unas elecciones, sino que hay que ir preparándose para gobernar al ganarlas, o inclusive antes. Es difícil imaginar un periodo normal de transición post elecciones y bastante urgente imaginarse (y planificar) como se lograría - con éxito - un desembarco súbito en el poder.

Para simplificar - y no perder mucho mas tiempo - concluiremos que Hugo Chávez, a consecuencia de su enfermedad y/o por la terrible pérdida de credibilidad resultante de sus errores recientes, es incapaz de ser candidato.  No obstante, será una obligatoria y controvertida figura de referencia en el muy complejo proceso político que se nos vino encima.

El problema que resulta de esta tajante conclusión es que no hay, ni habrá, un sustituto viable para Chávez en el gobierno o en la candidatura del PSUV. Chávez es un personaje con un carisma único, con unos desequilibrios emocionales únicos y con una forma de conducir el estado que no permite sucesores o segundos actos. El Estado ‘chavista’ es un disfraz hecho a la medida de una persona con talante autocrático que encalló y gobierna gustoso en el caos. Redirigir el aparato chavista implicaría poner en manos de gente sin legitimidad alguna - escogidos a dedo por un líder disminuido - las riendas de un aparato burocrático-militar que viene desbocado y que al detenerse (o devolverse) se le verían las costuras y se le volarían los pernos. Si el Comunismo no tuvo segundo acto ni en Moscú, ni en Bucarest, el chavismo - tutti-frutti tropical - ciertamente no sobrevivirá el ocaso de su Yo, todopoderoso.

¿Entonces qué? 

Entraremos en lo inmediato en una crisis de gobernabilidad que tiene tres componentes: la desaparición efectiva (y quizá física) del líder único, la marginalización del chavismo (y de la influencia cubana) en las Fuerzas Armadas y el crecimiento de la alternativa que representa Henrique Capriles y las fuerzas democráticas que lo apoyan (y que tendrán que protegerlo). 

Al aumentar las probabilidades de una derrota electoral, el chavismo se desmoralizará aun mas y por ende la  gobernabilidad irá disminuyendo. Es muy probable que salgan al aire testimonios contundentes sobre lo que ocurre gobierno adentro, las traiciones - lo que los venezolanos llaman saltos de talanquera - serán diarias y la derrota puede que no espere a octubre. Un colapso súbito del gobierno tiene que ser considerado como un escenario bastante probable pues es difícil imaginar que el oficialismo va a aguardar paciente una derrota anunciada. La cámara lenta funciona bien en los deportes pero no así en el oportunismo político. Por ser alto el costo de perderlo todo, seguramente veremos actos violentos propiciados por quienes no van a saber entender que el juego se acabó (aunque sea 'por ahora'). Esta resistencia puede tener severidad diversa, pero de por si, lo que hará es precipitar aun mas el desenlace. No estamos hablando de un fin ordenado o desordenado, sino de un final posiblemente adelantado. Lo único que evitaría la derrota del oficialismo en las urnas es un desplome de la candidatura de Henrique Capriles producto de algún garrafal error o de un golpe certero del oficialismo. Esto sin embargo nos pondría no en la vía de una reelección chavista sino del caos mas absoluto.

El riesgo mayor en este período (y también luego) lo encarnan los elementos armados del chavismo y grupos criminales extranjeros que han montado guarida en el país con la anuencia traidora de las autoridades. No preocupan tanto los representantes oficiales y corporativos de China, Rusia y Brasil que, pragmáticos al fin, buscarán negociar arreglos con la oposición si continúa Capriles avanzando hacia la victoria. Lo que preocupa son las mafias variopintas, el Fidelismo que tiene a Venezuela como su caja chica y Plan B y por supuesto los millones de armas sueltas en un país donde la vida perdió todo valor y donde el odio de clases se tornó en política de estado. Es aquí donde el rol institucional de las Fuerzas Armadas tendrá que entrar a jugar. No tiene sentido andar de uniforme y jurar defender la soberanía, si no se busca recuperar de manera inmediata el monopolio de la violencia. No será nada fácil volver a poner a los militares en su rol de garantes de la constitución y efectivos preservadores de la paz, pero esa es su tarea fundamental en este momento y lo sera por muchos años mas. Es por esto que tenemos que entender que la salida pacifica, la salida electoral, la salida democrática pasa por los militares. Si deciden jugársela por el futuro de una nación libre, prospera y de veras soberana podremos llegar alli. Si deciden comandar a sus tropas a un conflicto unidad contra unidad, guarnición contra guarnición, el futuro sera un charco de sangre de profundidad incalculable.

Si bien nunca antes habíamos tenido tanta violencia latente y tanto forastero in situ, Venezuela no es ajena a situaciones de gobernabilidad exigua. Solo en los últimos veinte años, además de tres presidentes electos por voluntad popular, tuvimos cuatro mas como respuesta a situaciones imprevistas. Octavio Lepage fue Presidente por 16 días a la salida temprana del poder de Carlos Andrés Pérez. Lepage no fue aceptable para nadie y se recurrió a la figura de Ramón Velásquez para completar el período y garantizar las elecciones del 93. En abril del 2002, como consecuencia de la respuesta asesina del gobierno a una masiva protesta en la ciudad de Caracas, el presidente Chávez, lloroso y arrepentido, renunció ante los compañeros de armas y representantes de la iglesia Católica, fue sustituido por Pedro Carmona un líder empresarial que a las pocas horas se inmoló, cometiendo errores imperdonables en sus primeros nombramientos militares y luego con un decreto extemporáneo que le costó casi todo el resto del apoyo que tenía. Fue sustituido por Diosdado Cabello, quien se dice devolvió a disgusto - a las pocas horas - la Presidencia al retornante Hugo Chávez. Esto lo traigo a título de recordatorio. Venezuela ha estado sin guión en el pasado reciente y no sería muy sorprendente que tengamos situaciones de aquí al fin de año que tampoco conformen ni con un plan ni con lo que los constituyentes tuvieron en mente.

La encrucijada en la que nos encontramos es el resultado irreversible de mas de una década de ‘revolución’ caótica, de un monoteísmo político anacrónico y de circunstancias que fueron surgiendo de forma planificada y de manera fortuita.  Venezuela, país que por décadas fue exportador neto de practicas y aliento democrático, no deja de sorprender. A pocos pasos de perder la lucha por la libertad, se encuentra ante un camino lleno de tropiezos, pero colmado de oportunidades. PMB

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Feb 15/12 | Stunning Primaries, Stunned Regime: What is next for Venezuela?

Whatever the outcome, this young man might have his hands really full!

PMBComment | The following 6 numbers are a good starting point for a commentary on Sunday’s opposition primaries in Venezuela.

3 | 17% | 64% | 2x | 5% | 1

In order they represent:

• The number of people – in millions - that voted in the primaries
• The percentage of total registered voters that voted in this unique exercise
• The percentage of votes obtained by the victor - Henrique Capriles Radonski
• The multiple of Capriles’ margin over second place finisher - Pablo Perez
• The combined percentage for Maria Corina Machado, Diego Arria and Pablo Medina
• The number of minutes it took the government to cry foul and lash out (and this was just the opening salvo)

This outcome – viewed in its full dimension – was nothing short of stunning.

For the opposition it represents the very – and I mean very – best case scenario in terms of turnout, mandate for the winner and reaction from the losers. For the regime it is – obviously - the worse (as in, very worse) scenario; made all the worse by the derision with which they had treated and had tried to derail the entire primary process.

As a result of this sharply asymmetric outcome, we have entered into a near-term-high-conflict zone. Given the consequences for the Bolivarian revolution of an electoral upset in October, they will, in all likelihood, try every trick in the book, use every penny in the treasury (plus foreign ‘loans’) and forge any nasty alliance necessary to hold on to power. Given the high cost of ejection and the complexities associated with stealing an election post-facto, anything they do now (as in, sooner rather than later) will seem rational and cheap by comparison to the panicky incumbents and its wide spectrum of nefarious foreign allies.  

Yesterday’s unsightly maneuvering by the regime-packed Supreme Court, trying to change the agreed norms for the treatment of critical data from the primaries, is but an early indication that this will be a no- holds-barred contest.

Mr. Capriles’ overwhelming mandate gives him an ‘aura of victory’ that should translate into a commanding lead when the first post-primary polls are published in a couple of weeks. This will exacerbate the paranoia of a not-yet-cured Hugo Chavez who just a week ago tried to force feed the country a callous “we are the second liberators of this country” narrative meant to rewrite history and enshrine – as charity - his reckless and deadly 1992 coups. The Meta message of that histrionic and narcissistic “4F” celebration was: “WE are your saviors and WE are here to stay”. That “WE” referring not to his party, but to the military that he then tried to enroll by fiat, en masse, Sukhois and all, into militant “chavismo”.  

As it turn out, that same military, commanded by thugs, was on the street Sunday protecting opposition polling stations with hardly an incident to report, and – worse yet - with actual smiles detected on the faces of many a soldier and mid-level officer.

It is this reversal of fortune that must have Hugo Chavez in one of his two extreme psychological states: paralyzed by fear or violently despondent. Those around him – opportunists and sycophants – must once again revisit contingency plans which the most gullible had probably stored away soon after Chavez pulled the “I am cured” and ‘I can speak to the National Assembly for nine hours without peeing’ gambit.

The actions of Chavez’s inner circle – civilian and military, local and foreign – will determine the nature of the confrontation ahead. It is hard, if not impossible to envision a scenario were Sunday’s stunning results are a guarantee of an electoral finish to the criminalized Bolivarian revolution.  With the primaries out of the way, massive boulders lie scattered on the road to an opposition victory and democratic and sustainable governability.

Mr. Capriles won the hearts and minds of a sizable group of Venezuelans and he did so with a strategy that many of us have considered a bit risky. Trying to sell a rosy future to an exhausted country seems prima facie a valid, and as just proven, a winning, strategy. The problem lies in the nature of the expectations this “don’t worry, be happy, hug your tormentors” approach ends up creating among the most needy and even the not-so-needy. If incompetent State paternalism was the bane of the ancien régime that Chavez obliterated, it is the sole defining factor of XXI century Socialism a’la Chavez. Capriles is promising to continue something that has been - but cannot continue to be – ‘financed’ with free gasoline, ever increasing foreign borrowing, deficit spending, printing Bolivares, laundering money, foregoing requisite investments or ignoring the dictates of democratic public accountability.

If finding and dolling money will be a challenge, deciding what the priorities are will be a nightmare. Let’s see:

• The country’s coffers are empty, but social needs and expectations have never been higher.
• PDVSA, the oil monopoly, is in physical, operational and financial shambles, but so are most of the state enterprises, hospitals and schools in the country.
• Venezuela is heaven (and haven) for global criminals and hell on earth for honest local judges and policemen. How do you deal with the first in the absence of the latter?
• Drug cartels today act with total impunity but tomorrow might do what they always do when threatened by law enforcement and public opinion.
• The military is divided, demoralized and full of indecent characters, but it would be nice to count on them and their loyalty - as an institution - if the losers become sore and vengeful.
• Foreign aid in all shapes and forms will be needed, but foreign ambitions and meddling will have to be rolled back and checked.
• Bureaucracies will have to deliver and financial institutions will have to lend, but thieves within them must be outed.  

And so on and so forth...

Objectively speaking, a very long list of bad news that might well  ruin any eventual victory lap and which is both dangerous (and apparently futile) to discuss in public and too dangerous to hide under the proverbial rug.

Mr. Capriles is young and above all things extremely resilient. His walk is much better than his talk which can actually be a good thing. He has been in the crosshairs of Chavez’s Cuban puppeteers since very early in the game. When combined with the likes of Leopoldo Lopez and Carlos Ocariz, and why not, Maria Corina Machado, they prove an ill fit for the inane, but highly effective cubanite slogan: No volveran! (They will not return). The fact is that the face of Venezuela’s opposition is at long last fresh and does not conform to the caricature Mr. Chavez has effectively painted of the past. They simple were not around in the past.  Period. Every one of them entered politics upon or after Chavez’s rise. Sunday’s results were a massive blow to AD and Copei, the traditional parties that once monopolized power but that have come to resemble whorehouses without señoritas, trains without engines, memories without future. Chavez will miss them. He has till now counted on them to, among other things, envelop emerging leaders and sap them of their enthusiasm and charisma.

I, like millions of others, would rather take a gamble on youthful inexperience than continue to be hostage to a game of extreme unity that had until now spared many crooked so-called ‘leaders’ from their well earned banishment. Mr. Capriles, with the timely help of Leopoldo Lopez, has definitively earned the right to build a new majority that could very well banish the labels “chavista” and “anti-chavista” and focus on Venezuelans who are ready to work hard for a prosperous, fair and safe Venezuela; one in which the State does only what others can’t and where a level playing field and competition fuels the economy and brings to the surface the best the country and its diverse citizenry have to offer.

To move forward we have to watch the boulders on the road, understand that the enemy is despicable and full of fear, and prepare not just to win but also to govern. Capriles and his team must be ready to explain and competent in their exposition of our many woes and seek assistance wherever in the world we might find a helping hand. The problems of Venezuela are daunting, but its potential remains dazzling. Mr. Capriles and his youthful team deserve praise and assistance. A change of Presidents will not solve our nation’s problems, but without the change they will simply multiply.

The hardest part lies ahead, but Venezuela now enters a new phase - full of dead serious and deadly challenges - with renewed faith and with a surprisingly strong mandate from – and to - people that seem determined to outwit the whim of spent autocrats from both ends of our polarized society. 

Finally, hats off to the operational teams of the Mesa de la Unidad, and to the candidates themselves. We would not have this last chance to disrobe and disarm a despot without them.

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Feb 02/12 | Once again: Its the military, stupid! i.e. Chávez a los opositores: “Aún no lo entienden, la Fuerza Armada es chavista”

The NEW Liberator? Fatal overreach

PMBComment | Some naive intellectuals in the region - and many "experts" in DC - are prone to make statements like "Latin America is finally free of militarism", or "it is unacceptable to have the military involved in political matters". But I am sorry to say - once again - when it comes to Venezuela,  it is the Military, stupid - and NOT much more. 

After all, over the last 13 years - and in plain sight of the ENTIRE world - Hugo Chavez has militarized the government and society and fully politicized the military. No solution exists in Venezuela which does not require focusing on the reaction of the fragmented, corrupted  and operatically challenged armed forces. This applies to Hugo Chavez's ability to continue governing or HenriqueLeopoldoPabloMariaDiego being able to assume power after an eventual and uphill victory in October. Chavez dedicates 24/7/365 to military fine tuning, and has by now convinced the many factions within the armed forces (too many to enumerate) that they are so complicit in the royal mess that defines the Bolivarian regime that they are much better off putting aside their differences, covering their noses, closing their eyes and swearing allegiance to him or a chavista successor to him. And that seems to be the sorry fact of life in Venezuela today. So, ignore the military at your own peril.

I have written much about this subject since 2002 (do a search at www.pmbcomments.com) and have finally began to observe more and more people understanding that military matters matter a lot in today's and tomorrow's Venezuela. It might be a bit late, but recognizing this mega fact is a big improvement. Demilitarizing Venezuela is - and will be for decades - a massive undertaking for all Venezuelans (me firmly included) who want to see the military out of politics, out of the nations' civil service jobs, out of the narcotics business, free of their subservience to Cuban generals, and focused on ensuring peace and helping preserve the rule of law while millions of civilians focus on rebuilding a country decimated with the complicity of many men and women in uniform. All this sounds like wishful thinking, does it not?

Below a little nugget from today that you must not miss. We will criticize this blatant statement in the days to come, but no one in active duty will say much, do much or care much. Do see the video (it is short and sour) PMB

Chávez a los opositores: “Aún no lo entienden, la Fuerza Armada es chavista”

Publicado el 02 de feb de 2012 11:48 pm |

Video: Cadena Nacional 02 de febrero de 2012

El primer mandatario, Hugo Chávez, se refirió este jueves a las criticas por parte de la oposición en relación a la Fuerza Armada Bolivariana. “La oposición ha dicho que hay que limpiar a las Fanb del chavismo”,señaló.

“Tendrán que acabar la Fuerza Armada, porque la Fuerza Armada es chavista”, ponderó el Presidente. “La Fuerza Armada venezolana tiene a Chávez en el corazón, en la raíz”.

El Jefe de Estado se preguntó “cómo van a hacer para limpiar a la FAN del chavismo, del bolivarianismo, no podrán, no podrán porque Chávez tiene en el corazón y en el alma a la Fuerza Armada.

Reiteró que hay que seguir trabajando muy duro y casa por casa para seguir fomentando el plan de Gobierno que se ha implementado en los últimos años del país.-- 

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Dec 24/11 | A Christmas without Putin? Chapter 2 ... tic...tic...tic

What goes around comes round. After calling the white ribbons of the 

Dec 10th March condoms, today he was made to wear one!!

PMBComment | Developments in Russia are still on track with my succinct - and for many shocking - prediction: a Christmas without Putin (keep in mind that Orthodox Christmas falls on January 7th). The size, tone and wide-ranging nature of the speakers at today's rally (see NYTimes report below) cannot be compared to anything Russia has experienced since the fall of Communism. A mere 3 weeks ago, when I last arrived in Moscow, nobody would have been able to predict that Winter would be a good time to ignite a Russian Spring. But that is exactly what is happening and 120,000 people on the street of Moscow in sub-zero temperature is the equivalent of X more in cushier Western capitals or warmer Middle Eastern conditions. 

The dismantling of Putin's power base will be much harder than dislodging the spent Soviet nomenklatura. The new power elite is awash in cash (and shares) and probably fears reprisal even more than the old apparatchiks. But, on the other hand, they are awash in cash (and shares) and might behave very opportunistically and be all too happy to dump Putin - and his inner circle of "thieves and scoundrels" - as long as those giving them the final push can hold on to some (or maybe all) of their goodies and morph into born-again democrats and liberals. 

Of all the surprising calls heard today it was, once more, blogger - and nominal head of this amazing groundswell - Aleksei Navalny who captured the spirit and the headlines: “We have enough people here to take the Kremlin and the White House (seat of Government),” he shouted to the massive crowd. “But we are peaceful people and we won't do that — yet. But if these crooks and thieves don't give us back what they've stolen from us, we will take it ourselves.” On Christmas Eve on this side of the world it is heartwarming to see and hear the voice of freedom in a land of immense opportunity and amazing talents.  PMB

---

NYTimes | December 24, 2011

Vast Rally in Moscow Streets Is Challenge to Putin’s Power

By ELLEN BARRY and MICHAEL SCHWIRTZ

MOSCOW — Tens of thousands of citizens converged in Moscow on Saturday for the second huge antigovernment demonstration in a month, an early victory for activists struggling to forge a burst of energy into a political force capable of challenging Vladimir V. Putin’s power.

The first such demonstration, two weeks ago, was unprecedented for Mr. Putin’s rule, and there were reasons Saturday’s turnout could have been lower — among them, winter holidays and the onset of bitter cold.

Instead, people poured all afternoon into a canyon created by vast government buildings, and the police put the crowd at 30,000, more than they reported on Dec. 10. Organizers said it was closer to 120,000. Hours later, as the protesters dispersed, they chanted, slowly: “We will come again! We will come again!”

If the movement sustains its intensity, it could alter the course of the presidential election in March, when Mr. Putin plans to extend his stretch as the country’s dominant figure to an eventual 18 years. Opposition voters were furious over the conduct of this month’s parliamentary election, and will be roused again by Mr. Putin’s campaigning. Still, maintaining momentum is a huge challenge, and the initial giddy mood has already hardened into something more serious.

The crime novelist Boris Akunin, peering out through wire-rimmed glasses as he addressed the crowd from a stage, said demonstrators should prepare themselves for a long haul.

“We will have a difficult year,” Mr. Akunin said. “But it will be an interesting year. It will be our year.”

The protests have rattled the Kremlin, which has not encountered widespread political resistance for a decade. Mr. Putin initially sneered at the demonstrators, saying days after the first rally that the white ribbons they have adopted as a symbol resembled limp condoms, and that they participated only because they were paid by foreign agents seeking to undermine Russia.

But it is clear that government elites are taking protesters’ complaints as a warning and scrambling to head off a more dangerous confrontation. On Saturday, for the first time, two high-level figures connected to the Kremlin were at the demonstration.

Former Finance Minister Aleksei L. Kudrin, a member of Mr. Putin’s inner circle for more than two decades, took the stage to express his support for many of the protesters’ demands: the dismissal of the head of the Central Election Commission, Vladimir Y. Churov; the dissolution of Parliament and new elections; and changes in the election code to allow for free competition.

Mr. Kudrin published an article on Saturday in Kommersant, a respected daily newspaper, noting that many employees of state enterprises were participating in the demonstrations.

“It seems to me they wanted to say the following: ‘Respected leaders! Many of us have come here for the first time, fully consciously and entirely independently. We have something to lose, and we are for stability,’ ” Mr. Kudrin wrote. “But the violation of your own rules — and this is the way we take the information about mass falsifications and violations of statistical patterns — this is too much.”

The billionaire Mikhail D. Prokhorov, who has said he will run against Mr. Putin, was also in the crowd, though he did not deliver a speech. He arrived without a security detail, stooping occasionally to answer questions and pose for photographs with young women.

Both Mr. Kudrin and Mr. Prokhorov are viewed skeptically by a portion of the protesters, who fear they represent attempts by the Kremlin to dilute or divide a powerful new protest electorate.

“Sorry, what relationship does Kudrin have to democratic movements?” wrote Vladimir Varfolomeyev, an editor at the radio station Ekho Moskvy, via Twitter. “He’s a bureaucrat who has faithfully served the regime for 10 years.” When Mr. Kudrin took the stage, he was booed by some in the crowd and cheered by others.

Though all demonstrators interviewed said they were hoping to avoid a violent uprising, some left the possibility hanging in the air like a warning. Aleksei Navalny, the blogger whose enormous popularity set these protests in motion, was greeted with a deafening roar from the crowd, which had been begging to see him for more than an hour.

“I can see that there are enough people here to seize the Kremlin,” said Mr. Navalny, 35, who listened to the earlier protest on the radio while serving 15 days in jail. “We are a peaceful force and will not do it now. But if these crooks and thieves try to go on cheating us, if they continue telling lies and stealing from us, we will take what belongs to us with our own hands.”

Mr. Navalny especially delighted the crowd with barbed insults of Mr. Putin; indeed, hatred for the prime minister has become a primary motif at these events. One popular sign read “Putin is our condom,” in a reference to his comments about the white ribbons. Another, painted in the style of Salvador Dalí, showed the prime minister melting in front of a giant clock and read, “Your time has passed.”

“Where is this man?” Mr. Navalny asked. “Can you see him? Is he here?”

He added: “These days, with the help of the zombie-box, they are trying to prove to us that they are big and scary beasts. But we know who they are. Little sneaky jackals! Is that right?” The crowd roared. “Is that true or not?” Another roar.

Pavel Morozov, 23, said he realized that dislodging Mr. Putin might hurt the middle-class quality of life he enjoys. But he said it did not matter. “Putin is a reincarnation of Brezhnev,” he said. He added that while he did not know whether people like Mr. Navalny or the environmental activist Yevgenia Chirikova were worthy alternatives, “at least they are an alternative. Anyone now but Putin.”

Former President Mikhail S. Gorbachev told Ekho Moskvy that he thought Mr. Putin should withdraw his bid for the presidency. When asked whether he thought Mr. Putin would give up power voluntarily, Mr. Gorbachev, who was not at the rally, said, “What’s terrible about it?” and noted that he had done so 20 years ago. “Then all the positive that he has done would be safeguarded.”

For organizers, the challenge is to keep the movement alive at all, since the protesters are working people who will leave the city for two soporific weeks in January. Their commitment to politics is unclear; some say that they are willing to demonstrate for years, others that they will lose interest if a leader does not emerge.

“I don’t know what people here want or what they expect from today, but the fact that they are here is important and valuable in and of itself,” said Zinaida Burskaya, 22. “I do feel that it will affect things over the next two to three years. That people have torn themselves from off their couches and have come here and are not apathetic. This may allow for new leaders to emerge.”

Toward evening, the humorist Viktor Shenderovich looked out at the protesters and stated: “This toothpaste cannot be put back in the tube.” And they dispersed in a great surge through backstreets and alleyways — anarchists and incrementalists, nationalists and bread-and-butter voters waving the hammer-and-sickle flag of the Soviet Union. Marina Shkudyuk, 58, an economist, said she was motivated by rising housing and utility costs, and planned to keep coming out until her demands were satisfied. She said she did not see a leader emerging from the movement, but “at least let there be something different.”

“My family thinks that Grandma has gone crazy,” she said.

Glenn Kates, Ilya Mouzykantskii and Nikolai Khalip contributed reporting.

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Dec 19/11 | On the possible reasons for sidelining of a Chavez successor

Foreign Minister Maduro counting possible reasons for his demise...1..2..3..4?

PMBComment | Hugo Chávez announced a few days ago that Foreign Minister Maduro, who had been slated to take over as Vice President from Elias Jaua, was to step down in order to run for the governorship of the industrial state of Carabobo. There are many theories for the sudden sidelining of Chávez-heir apparent - Nicolas Maduro, four of the most credible are:

1. Maduro was becoming too big of a domestic shadow for a paranoid coupster like Hugo Chávez who has always been mindful of 'chavismo without Chávez' maneuvering. 
2. Maduro was being trumpeted as successor by too many foreign governments (i.e. Brazil, Cuba, Colombia..) that have assumed as 'sincere' his behind-the-scene bad mouthing of Chávez: "it is so difficult to work with him...he is nuts...let me see how we can make him understand" ... and so on. Chávez, this version states, was able to see during CELAC's Summit that Maduro was in cahoots with others holding court as the anointed one. Remember this instant-falling-out-of-favor happened a decade ago to Cuba's Roberto Robaina, and more recently to Carlos Lage and Felipe Perez Roque. It would not be surprising if Cuban intelligence reported on some of Maduro's most egregious badmouthing and grandstanding. 
3. Maduro and his partner, former National Assembly President, Cilia Flores (also apparently fallen from grace), where allegedly outed by Walid Makled, the much talked about drug kingpin the Colombians returned to Venezuela after months of debriefing by US Government agencies. According to this version, Makled supposedly gave accounts of the activities of the powerful couple who - according to him - controlled their own little segment of the narcotics trade out of the Port of Puerto Cabello (in Carabobo State by the way). According to Makled, one of Maduro-Flores containers was reportedly captured by the DEA in Cartagena, Colombia, on the way to Mexico containing something other than the bathroom fixtures it was said to hold. Those pushing this theory say that Chávez was made aware by 'a third country' that Maduro and Flores were being closely tracked. 
4. Maduro is still the "successor" and the announcement of his demotion is nothing but a ploy by mentally perturbed and physically impaired Hugo Chávez. 

Whatever the reason - and I have no evidence to choose any of the above -  something serious must have happen as I am certain being Governor of the State of Carabobo was NOT very high on Maduro's wish list for this Christmas. PMB

Blogger Miguel Octavio discusses this case in his latest post.

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Nov 17/11 | On a doctor's (insider?) take on the Bolivarian caudillo's health

A panel of distinguished doctors.  Not seen in Caracas lately.

PMBComment | Below you will find a very interesting interview (translated from the original) with a Venezuelan doctor that has in the past treated President Chávez and who claims to be in touch with people in the know of his current malady. While it is strange to have a doctor discuss in such details a particular patient, this was bound to occur given the irresponsible secrecy surrounding Mr. Chávez's condition. Indeed nothing proves more that we do NOT live in a democratic society that the secrecy that has surrounded his matter. An elected president is nothing more than an employee of the public; that same public, which the populist Chávez once termed "el soberano". It would seem that "the sovereign" has the right to know what is happening to someone who has concentrated - while in the public payroll - all power in his hands and is using copious amount of public monies to seek a cure in an even more secretive (i.e. less democratic) foreign country. But no, the information gap is filled with speculation, rumours and lies. In the mean time Hugo Chávez spends almost every waking minute talking about his illness, his treatments, his recovery, and doing little to run a country that seems to be spinning out of his - and everyone's - control. 

When asked my opinion about the real state of Mr. Chávez's health, I have to plead ignorance on the facts, but can surmise that in this type of circumstance no news is usually bad news. Much of what Dr. Navarrete discusses about his mental state is well known but not necessarily well incorporated into news or academic writing about the subject. As to his current prognosis, if it were truly good, the clearly distracted (scared?) but usually communicative leader of the Bolivarian movement would waste no time to have REAL doctors (i.e. not Fidel Castro) get on TV and present, in proper fashion, his medical facts. Failure to do so tells a great deal. PMB

M Semanal         

Original Source (in Spanish) :  www.msemanal.com/node/4768

Mexico City, Sunday, 16 October 2011                   

Translated into English from the original Spanish

Hugo Chávez. Life Expectancy: Two Years

The president went from having problems with triglycerides and cholesterol 20 years ago to receiving treatment for bipolarity during the last ten years and now has an aggressive tumor in his pelvis that requires chemotherapy and offers a very bad prognosis. 

The cancer President Hugo Chávez is suffering from has shaken Venezuela and the President’s allies. The physician who had brought in a team of Venezuelan physicians to Miraflores Palace to look after the President’s health, before the President would subsequently entrust his life only to Cuban physicians, agreed to talk to M Semanal about the subject.  In this interview, surgeon Salvador Navarrete Aulestia traces the profile of patient Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías, and his diagnosis is not good: the President suffers from an aggressive malignant tumor of muscular origin lodged in his pelvis.  The life expectancy in those cases can be up to two years.       

During recent years, steeped in secrecy, several Latin American presidents have seen their health deteriorate while wielding power: Fidel Castro bequeathed the presidential chair to his brother Raúl in Cuba as he was on the brink of death in 2006; Néstor Kirchner become ill while he was President and died last year, and his widow Cristina is showing signs of depression as she leads Argentina; Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo has cancer; Uruguayan President Pepe Mujica, age 76, has mentioned that he suffers from stress; Salvadoran President Mauricio Funes does not hide his extreme attachment to tobacco, while Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff is recovering from lymphatic cancer; Vicente Fox had spinal surgery amidst his term of office and Peru’s former President Alejandro Toledo suffers from alcoholism.

Having taken care of the President’s health is not the only merit earned by Salvador Navarrete, a specialist in laparoscopy trained in Venezuela, France, the United States and Cuba.  He has published some thirty writings and scientific videos, and received a series of awards; among them the Venezuelan Society of Surgery prize, the Cipriano Jiménez Macías Prize and the Ricardo Baquero González Prize, at several sessions of the Venezuelan Congress of Surgery.  This is his testimony.

VFG:  What is the profile  of Hugo Chávez Frías as the patient of a physician to the Office of the President?

SN: President Chávez is a man who, in the past, has been treated for an illness of the manic-depressive kind, something known to his biographers and to those of us who have seen him as physicians. This illness had been previously managed by a group of psychiatrists led by physician Edmundo Chirinos, who in 2010 was sentenced to 20 years in prison for murdering a female patient in 2008. This medical treatment serves to counteract the President’s manifestations of unstable mental states that swing from euphoria to sadness, states in which the personality becomes dissociated and reaches episodes of losing contact with reality.  It is a very frequent illness in today’s world, categorized as bipolar disorder.  President Chávez oscillates between these two poles, with more of a tendency toward euphoria, to hyperactivity and to mania.     

VFG:  When was your first meeting with President Chávez as a patient?

SN:  I saw him as a patient at Miraflores Palace in March of 2002, on the eve of the coup d’état against him, because he was feeling very distraught.  The Minister to the Secretariat of the Presidency, Rafael Vargas, who was living at the presidential residence, asked us to create an inner circle of politically trustworthy Venezuelan physicians in order to treat the ailments of a President who was under immense pressure and physical debilitation. 

VFG:  What was the work like for that medical team having the mission of caring for a President during Venezuela’s greatest political crisis of the last decade?

SN:  It was a very intense experience. He had us become members of the personnel of highest political trust assigned to Miraflores Palace. The three of us were Venezuelan physicians: a cardiologist, a gastroenterologist and yours truly as the team’s surgeon.  Of the three I was the only one having political militancy, being a member of the Expanded National Office of the Fifth Republic Movement (MVR), founded by President Chávez, as part of the Office of Ideological Training, which was a great political party until its conversion in 2007 into the core of the Unified Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV).

THE DISTRUST

VFG:  What was the experience like for  this group of Venezuelan physicians who were faced with a powerful patient who was being hounded permanently?

SN:  The three of us went to evaluate the President several times.  On that occasion, less than 10 years ago, we found it necessary to perform an upper and lower endoscopy (inserting a camera through the mouth and through the anus).  The reason we went there was to protect him, so that that ailment would not evolve, but he did not allow us to examine him.  Today, now that the cancer he suffers from has been discovered, the President states publicly that he regrets his haughtiness toward the medical recommendations.

VFG:  Does this then have to do with an unwilling and skeptical patient?

SN:  The President is very distrustful. Very, very distrustful.  He thought he was never going to take ill. On one of those occasions he and I had an important discussion, when I called to his attention the lack of political responsibility that resulted from his not allowing his ailments to be tended to and from his not allowing us to perform our medical work, which was to preserve his health. 

VFG:  Were there any consequences?

SN:  The President never made enemies with me.  That episode stayed where it was, suspended in midair, and faded away even more so as a result of the tribulations of the coup d’état that followed. From that moment onward I became aware of many things surrounding power and I abandoned my political militancy and moved on to “winter quarters” as an advisor to the government in the field of Health; but I did not withdraw completely.  Two years later the then Minister of Health, Francisco Armada, appointed me as his ministerial representative to the administration of the University Hospital of Caracas, an office I held until July of this year when, happily, after having resigned twice, the current Minister of Health, who had been a student of mine, Eugenia Sader, accepted my resignation from an office I held from 2005 until July of 2011, with a very nice letter of appreciation. It was a very interesting honorary public office which kept me active in hospital administration, despite the fact that three less-than-transparent, formerly military, Ministers of Health came and went. Now I dedicate myself to medical and academic activity.

THE PRESIDENT’S CLINICAL HISTORY

VFG:  What kind of person did the President turn out to be during the medical auscultations that he allowed to be performed on him at that time?

SN:  He is a very, very clean person.  It is noteworthy that he sees to it that someone grooms his fingernails and toenails, and that is something that draws much attention toward him, a military man.  The President presents himself very well and has a very particular magnetism.  He is a man who is very careful about his personal appearance, who is always well groomed, who does not smell bad, who is meticulous, who is concerned about being in good physical shape. He is an interesting man of power, not inclined toward reading in a systematic way, but reads fragments he tries to tie together in his own ideological imagination, which can swing from one faction to the other.   

VFG:  What was the most noticeable addiction entered in his medical record?

SN:  He is a man who drinks a lot of coffee, lots of it.  He drinks countless cups of coffee daily.  He smokes under stressful situations or for pleasure, in private, never in public.  On a daily basis he works until late hours of the night, is a night owl and makes his ministers work at the same pace as he does.  He gets up at six-thirty or seven in the morning, with an average of three or four hours of sleep nightly, no more than that, and he sleeps very little.  He is a strong man, even though he may now appear deformed from the effect of the chemotherapy.   

VFG:  What records appear in the history prior to the President’s current clinical record?

SN:  There are no operations or records of previous surgeries.  He has a record of a metabolic disorder known as dyslipidemia, in other words, high cholesterol and triglycerides.  At that time he was not receiving treatment for it and he was showing a tendency toward high arterial tension, but he was not hypertense.  At about 180 pounds he was barely ten to thirteen pounds overweight, not like he is now.  He is a tall strong man whose height is about 5 feet 10 inches.

VFG:  How did this patient, a decade later,  suddenly display a clinical profile with cancer?

SN:  The President decided to go in a radically different direction after the coup d’état against him.  He walked away from all the Venezuelan physicians and placed himself absolutely in the hands of Cuban physicians.  A month ago we met with people very close to the President and I told them the same thing I told him at Miraflores when he was my patient: that there is a lack of awareness of the national political impact stemming from the President’s health.  The answer from these people around him was the same: that he cannot be told anything about his health, that he does not pay attention to anyone, much less to Venezuelans.

VFG:  There is much speculation about the type of cancer that afflicts the President. Neither he nor anyone else has said what it is.

SN:  I am going to offer the information I have concerning that premise you propose to me.  President Chávez has a tumor in his pelvis that is called a sarcoma.  Those are retroperitoneal tumors of the pelvic floor. From the embryological point of view they can be of three types: mesodermal, ectodermal and endodermal. The information I have from the family is that he has a sarcoma, a very aggressive tumor having a very bad prognosis and I am almost certain that is the reality.  That is why they are giving him such an aggressive chemotherapy, because if it were prostate cancer, then hormonal treatment would be given and that would be it, and you wouldn’t even notice he was receiving any treatment.  

VFG:  Are you then discarding a prostate tumor?

SN:  It is not a prostate tumor.  It is a tumor that is very near to the prostate and is probably invading his bladder.  Or it is a tumor that originates in the bladder and is invading the pelvis.  In any case, it is a tumor that originates in the lower part of the pelvis, which is considered to be the anatomical region that is within the hips. Behind that region are the iliopsoas muscles, which are muscles that, [originate] at the lumbar region of the spine, [and insert at] the femur, lifting it upwards. It is the muscle that makes it possible to raise the knee while seated. That is why we think the tumor is of a muscular nature, that it is lodged and originates there; I say so because, before undergoing surgical intervention for removal of the malignant tumor the size of a baseball, the President was oversensitive to a problem in his knee: referred pain. That is why we are almost certain that this has to do with that kind of cancer.  That is a some information that, through the public’s natural interest, we have been integrating and constructing little by little.  I am the family’s surgeon and I met with one of their (the family’s) other physicians, we shared the available information and fully coincided in this diagnosis I am making.      

VFG:  The inevitable question everyone is asking is: what is the range of life expectancy for a profile similar to that of President Chávez?

SN:  We believe that the prognosis for President Chávez is not good. And when I say the prognosis is not good that means that the life expectancy can be for as many as two years.  This explains the decision to hold elections sooner.

ILLNESSES OF POWER

VFG:  Is an ill president the result of two decades of stress, starting with his attempted coup d’état in 1992 and which includes the 12 years he has been in power?

SN: Men in power are individuals who believe themselves to be possessed by a supernatural force.  In order to aspire to be President of a country you need to have an emotional condition different from the majority of the people, because you need to have a lot of ambition and perseverance to be able to move so many people out of your way and be able to take power and keep it.  That constitutes  a very particular psychic and emotional state.  To have the cojones to aspire to lead a country of 50 million inhabitants, or 30 or 20 million, requires more than just will.     

VFG:  You know the President’s family because you as a surgeon have operated on them.  Is there a common tendency toward certain illnesses?

SN:  On the Chavez side of the family, the paternal branch, they tend to have vascular diseases.  [His father] suffered a stroke.  And on the Frías branch, his mother’s side, they have a tendency to have tumors.  I operated on his mother for a benign tumor of the neck in 1999, together with another colleague who is their family physician and whom I still see frequently.  And now she is a very healthy and very strong woman.  But President Chávez was a healthy man when I examined him in the context that led to the coup d’état of 2002.  He only suffered from a problem with elevated cholesterol and elevated triglycerides and a mental problem consisting of bipolar behavior under treatment.  Someone in the family must have that illness, an ancestor, because President Chávez definitely has it, but we do not know who he inherited it from.     

VFG:  Are the President’s family’s physicians also Cubans?

SN:  No, we are the family’s physicians.

VFG:  And why is it that Cubans and not Venezuelans are occupying that space?  Has the President become distrustful?

SN:  Absolutely, right now President Chávez does not trust anyone.

VFG:  Nobody?

SN:  Nobody.  In Venezuela President Chávez does not trust anybody: only Cubans.  In fact, at the Military Hospital there is now a floor prepared just in case something happens to the President and all the personnel are strictly Cuban.  Not even the stretcher-bearers are Venezuelan.

VFG:  Does that explain the imprecise report published by the Miami Herald about President Chavez’s hospitalization a couple of weeks ago?

SN:  I can say with certainty that between Sunday September 25^th and Monday the 26^th he was given dialysis because the kidney was not filtering the medications well and he was suffering. On Monday medical colleagues had to remove a dialysis machine from the Caracas Military Hospital and take it to Miraflores Palace.   

VFG:  It was in his bedroom at Miraflores Palace where you performed an auscultation at some moment.  What’s it like  within that intimate realm of the President of  Venezuela?

SN:  It is a very plain and orderly bedroom, just like he is.  With a very small bookcase, with the readings he chooses for the moment, everything is very tidy, and I must insist that he his a very meticulous, clean, orderly and austere person. That is how he is.

VFG:  What is the scenario with Chávez being ill in 2012?

SN:  This scenario has two options: one with Chávez as candidate and the other without him.  The President could die and the military would have to take power for a while; or, if his illness prevents him from running as candidate, then the incumbent party would lose the elections.  If he comes forth under conditions of health acceptable for en electoral campaign, according to recent information he has more than 55 percent acceptance in popularity, but as a candidate Chávez scores 35 points, a yet unnamed independent candidate would receive the same 35 percent, and the opposition candidate only 22 points.  These are the consequences of the President’s illness.

Salvador Navarrete, surgeon

A surgeon with specialty in bariatric and metabolic surgery, graduated from the Faculty of Medicine, Luis Razetti School, Central University of Venezuela, in 1981.  Postgraduate work completed at University Hospital in Caracas, where he received the title of Specialist in General Surgery.

He completed his training in France, the United States and Cuba, specializing in laparoscopic surgery.  Likewise, he was a visiting assistant at the Laparoscopic Unit led by the prestigious Dr. Moses Jacobs at Baptist Hospital in Miami.

As a specialist in surgery for obesity, he has participated widely as a panelist and presenter at medical conferences and gatherings in Venezuela, as well as in Japan, Brazil, Spain, the United States and Peru, among other countries.   

Dr. Navarrete has more than thirty scientific publications and videos, which have earned him wide recognition, among them the following:  the Venezuelan Society of Surgery Prize, the Cipriano Jiménez Macías Prize and the Ricardo Baquero González Prize, bestowed upon him at different events of the Venezuelan Congress of Surgery.  

He has been Chief of the Surgical Team at University Hospital in Caracas, Chief of Residents of Surgery Service II and currently is Chief of the Endoscopic Unit of University Hospital in Caracas.

His teaching activity at the Luis Razetti School of the Faculty of Medicine of the Central University of Venezuela has been extensive, including General Coordinator of Postgraduate Studies of General Surgery and Coordinator of the Internship of the Undergraduate Program in General Surgery of the Department of Clinical and Surgical Therapy B of University Hospital in Caracas.

Currently he is Coordinator of Postgraduate Studies of General Surgery at University Hospital in Caracas and Head of the Department of Clinical and Surgical Therapy B.

Doctor Navarrete shares his professional activities among University Hospital in Caracas, El Ávila Clinic and Santa Sofía Clinic.  He belongs to numerous scientific societies: founder of the Endoscopic Surgery Section and of the Bariatric Surgery Section that are part of the Venezuelan Society of Surgery, as well as founder of the Venezuelan Society of Bariatric and Metabolic Surgery.

He’s a member of the Latin American Endoscopic Surgery Association, The Society of Laparoendoscopic Surgeons and of the Laparoscopic Surgery Society of Spain, among others.

Víctor Flores García

 Translation by: Indysurfer

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